DEVIATEDamm @ Hanfmann: a 7 point model vs market gap, explained
A closer look at one Deviate alert on Damm @ Hanfmann, with its original numbers: model 60%, Kalshi market 53%.
The alert
Damm @ Hanfmann: Martin Damm level 0-0 in sets, 5-4 in set 1. Model 60%, market 53%, gap 7 percentage points; side: Martin Damm. Sent 2026-10-19 12:23:02 UTC. Outcome: won.
From this exact situation, our historical model gives Martin Damm about a 60% chance to win. Kalshi's market was pricing the same outcome at 53 cents on YES. That is a 7 point gap between the historical rate and the market price. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee, and outcomes in a live match can change quickly.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results. This is not financial advice.