DEVIATEWhich sports Deviate covers, and where it does not send alerts
Nine sports, six with a live model and three that appear in Live without alerts. What Deviate reads in each one.
Deviate follows nine sports on Kalshi markets, but they are not all treated the same way. Some have a live win-probability model that can produce alerts. Others show up in the Live tab as markets only. This page lays out which is which, so you know what to expect before you choose what to follow.
The card above is a soccer alert: Arsenal up 1 at the 90th minute, model 98% against a market price of 95%, a 3-point edge. It resolved WON. A small edge can still be an alert, and no alert is a guarantee.
Sports with a live model
Baseball. For MLB, the model reads the half-inning, outs, runners on base and score difference. It compares that state with historical outcomes from decades of play-by-play data. A state needs enough historical examples before it can produce an alert.
Tennis. For ATP and WTA matches, the model reads completed sets and the game score in the current set. It uses separate historical tables by tour and tournament context. ITF markets can appear in Live without producing model alerts.
Basketball. For the NBA and WNBA, the model reads the quarter, time remaining and score difference. The historical lookup averages over possession instead of treating it as a live input. Other basketball leagues use an estimate based on the lead and time remaining.
Football. For NFL games, the model reads the quarter, clock, score difference and which team has possession. Possession must be known for an alert. Down, distance, field position and timeouts are not separate inputs. Other football leagues use an estimate based on lead and time.
Soccer. The model reads the match minute, both teams' goals and red cards for each side, and it allows for a draw. A thinly supported state produces no alert, and drawn games are left ungraded.
Hockey. The model uses the score lead and time remaining. It currently uses an estimate formula, not a measured historical table.
Sports shown in Live without model alerts
Motorsports. F1, NASCAR, IndyCar and MotoGP markets appear in Live, labelled by series. The current app does not run a live win-probability model for these leaderboard events.
Golf. Golf markets appear in Live. There is no live win-probability model for golf leaderboards yet.
Cricket. T20, Test, ODI and IPL markets appear in Live, labelled by format. Live cricket game state is not connected to a model yet.
Why we spell this out
Market coverage and model coverage are different things, and mixing them up leads to wrong expectations. If a sport is in the Live tab but not in the list above, you will see prices but not alerts. You can set your sports and your minimum edge in Settings, and cap how many alerts you receive each day.
For how an alert is put together, read What is Deviate?. For the full method, see the How it works page and the sports page.
Deviate is an information tool and not a betting service. Trading event contracts involves the risk of loss.