DEVIATECeltics @ Pistons: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Celtics @ Pistons alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Celtics @ Pistons — Detroit Pistons +4, 5:50 left Q4. Model 77%, market 68%, gap 9 percentage points; side: Detroit Pistons. Sent 5:15 PM ET on Oct 20, 2026. Outcome: won.
Detroit Pistons currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~77% chance to win from this exact situation (Detroit Pistons +4, 5:50 left Q4). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 68% (68¢ on YES for Detroit Pistons). That's a 9-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
How Deviate works · Read the track record in context · More from the blog