DEVIATECity @ Hotspur: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the City @ Hotspur alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
City @ Hotspur — Tottenham Hotspur up 1, 67'. Model 80%, market 76%, gap 4 percentage points; side: Tottenham Hotspur. Sent 2026-10-19 20:26:27 UTC. Outcome: won.
Tottenham Hotspur currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~80% chance to win from this exact situation (Tottenham Hotspur up 1, 67'). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 76% (76¢ on YES for Tottenham Hotspur). That's a 4-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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