DEVIATEOne alert, start to finish: Fokina at 4-2 in the third
A recent tennis alert from the Deviate archive, what the card says, and why one win proves very little on its own.
At 6:54 AM Eastern on Oct 18, Deviate sent an alert on a tennis match, Jodar @ Fokina. The card above is that alert as it was stored. Here is the whole thing, start to finish.
The situation
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was level at 1-1 in sets and ahead 4-2 in the third. Deviate's model looked at matches from that exact spot and put his chance of winning at about 88%. The market was pricing the same outcome at 80%. That 8-point gap is the point edge on the card.
What the gap means
The market was a little lower than how often that situation has gone that way in the past. It does not mean a win is guaranteed. It means the price looked light compared with history.
What happened
Fokina won, so the alert is marked WON in the History tab.
One win proves very little
About half an hour later, a different alert fired on Kartal @ Chwalinska. Sonay Kartal was up 1-0 in sets with the second set at 0-0. The model said about 85% and the market said 78%, a 7-point edge. That alert is marked LOST, and you can see its card in how to read a Deviate alert card.
Both alerts sit in the same archive with the same card format, and neither is hidden. Late-game swings, injuries and plain variance flip outcomes, and a model that disagrees with the market will be wrong some of the time. Every card shows the situation, the model number, the market price and the result, so you can judge it yourself.
Keep reading
- What an edge actually means
- Why game state matters
- Another worked example: Korneeva @ Han
- What is Deviate?
Deviate is a prediction-market analytics app. It is not financial advice, and nothing here is a promise of results.