DEVIATEValkyries @ Dream: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Valkyries @ Dream alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Valkyries @ Dream — Golden State Valkyries +14, 9:18 left Q3. Model 85%, market 79%, gap 6 percentage points; side: Golden State Valkyries. Sent 2:28 PM ET on Oct 24, 2026. Outcome: won.
Golden State Valkyries currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~85% chance to win from this exact situation (Golden State Valkyries +14, 9:18 left Q3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 79% (79¢ on YES for Golden State Valkyries). That's a 6-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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