What is Deviate? A plain-English guide to the prediction market alert app

Deviate is an iPhone app that watches live Kalshi sports prediction markets and sends you an alert when its model and the market price disagree by more than you chose. This guide covers what it does, how an alert is built, and what it does not do.

The short version

Deviate compares two numbers for a live game. The first is a win probability from historical game situations. The second is the price Kalshi is showing for the same outcome right now. When the gap between them passes the minimum you set, the app sends a notification.

Each alert includes the model number, the market number, the size of the gap in percentage points, and a plain-English explanation of why it fired. You see the comparison itself, not just a signal.

How an alert is built

1. Read the game state. Depending on the sport, that can be the score, the inning, possession, the match minute or the time remaining. See which sports Deviate covers for the inputs by sport.
2. Look up comparable history. The state maps to a win probability based on how often that outcome happened in similar past situations. The baseball model uses decades of play-by-play data, and each model is checked against real outcomes before it ships.
3. Compare with the live market. Prices move continuously, and so does the model as the game changes.
4. Alert on the gap. If the difference passes your threshold, you get the notification.

For a deeper look at why the two numbers can differ, read what an edge actually means and why game state matters.

What is in the app

• Edges shows qualifying open and recent alerts, with the model number, the market number and the reasoning. It is part of the subscriber experience.
• Live shows the markets Deviate is tracking, with current prices and volume.
• History keeps resolved alerts with their outcomes, wins and losses both. A free preview is available before you subscribe, and the full log requires a subscription.
• Settings is where you pick your sports, set your minimum edge, set quiet hours, and cap how many alerts you get in a day.

You can close the app while it watches the markets. The idea is a pager, not a feed: it only tells you when something passes your rules.

Who it is for

People who already follow prediction markets on sports and want a faster way to see where a historical model and a live price pull apart, without refreshing market pages all day. It is built for reading the comparison and deciding for yourself.

What Deviate is not

• It is an information and alerting tool. It does not place trades and it does not hold your money.
• It is not a guarantee. A model number describes how often something happened in similar history, and the other outcome can still happen. One alert, start to finish shows a win and a loss from the same morning.
• It is independent. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any exchange, and the current app links to Kalshi markets. Any trading happens on third-party platforms, if you choose to trade at all.
• Not every sport has a live model. Some markets appear in the Live tab without producing alerts.

Price and availability

Deviate is on the App Store for iPhone. It is free to download with in-app purchases: two weeks free for first-time subscribers, then $9.99 per month. The subscription renews automatically, and you can cancel any time in your Apple ID settings. Local pricing and trial availability are shown in the App Store. The App Store lists an 18+ age rating. The App Store listing has the current details.

You can read how the model works in full on the How it works page, or see more examples in the Deviate blog.

Deviate is an information tool. Trading event contracts involves the risk of loss, and past results do not indicate future results.