DEVIATEPelicans @ Nuggets: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Pelicans @ Nuggets alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Pelicans @ Nuggets — Denver Nuggets +5, 1:01 left Q5. Model 95%, market 91%, gap 4 percentage points; side: Denver Nuggets. Sent 11:47 PM ET on Oct 24, 2026. Outcome: won.
Denver Nuggets currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~95% chance to win from this exact situation (Denver Nuggets +5, 1:01 left Q5). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 91% (91¢ on YES for Denver Nuggets). That's a 4-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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