DEVIATELeafs @ Flames: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Leafs @ Flames alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Leafs @ Flames — Calgary Flames +2, 14:04 left P3. Model 89%, market 77%, gap 12 percentage points; side: Calgary Flames. Sent 10:47 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026. Outcome: won.
Calgary Flames currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~89% chance to win from this exact situation (Calgary Flames +2, 14:04 left P3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 77% (77¢ on YES for Calgary Flames). That's a 12-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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