DEVIATEThunder @ Rockets: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Thunder @ Rockets alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Thunder @ Rockets — Houston Rockets +11, 11:57 left Q3. Model 84%, market 80%, gap 4 percentage points; side: Houston Rockets. Sent 9:53 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026. Outcome: won.
Houston Rockets currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~84% chance to win from this exact situation (Houston Rockets +11, 11:57 left Q3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 80% (80¢ on YES for Houston Rockets). That's a 4-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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