DEVIATEA +13 point edge in the second set: Korneeva @ Han, and the alert that lost nearby
Walking through a recent tennis alert on the Deviate card, what the 13-point gap means, and the loss from the same morning.
At 3:08 AM Eastern on Oct 18, Deviate sent an alert on a tennis match, Korneeva @ Han. The card above is that alert as it was stored. If you want a field-by-field explanation of a card, read how to read a Deviate alert card.
The situation
Shi Han was up 1-0 in sets and 1-0 in the second set. Deviate's model looked at matches that reached that same state and put her chance of winning at about 91%. The market was pricing the same outcome at 78%. The 13-point gap between those numbers is the point edge.
What the gap means
The market price was lower than how often that situation has gone that way in the past. That does not mean a win was guaranteed. It means the price looked light compared with history, which is the only claim an alert makes. A market can know things a historical lookup does not, so a gap can also mean the market is right.
What happened
Han won, so the alert is marked WON in the History tab.
The other side of the same morning
One result proves very little. Later that morning, at 7:29 AM Eastern, an alert fired on Kartal @ Chwalinska. Sonay Kartal was up 1-0 in sets with the second set at 0-0. The model said about 85% and the market said 78%, a 7-point edge. That alert is marked LOST. The full card is in the card guide.
Both alerts sit in the same archive with the same card format, and neither is hidden. Not every alert wins. Late swings, injuries and plain variance flip outcomes, and a model that disagrees with the market will be wrong some of the time.
How to read the numbers
- Situation: the exact score state the model is looking at.
- Model: how often that situation has ended in a win in comparable history.
- Market: the live price for the same outcome when the alert fired.
- Point edge: the gap between the two.
For the idea behind that last number, read what an edge actually means and why game state matters. New to the app? Start with What is Deviate?.
Deviate is a prediction-market analytics app. It is not financial advice, and nothing here is a promise of results.