DEVIATEGuardians @ Rays: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Guardians @ Rays alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Guardians @ Rays — Tampa Bay Rays +3, Top 6, 0 outs. Model 88%, market 85%, gap 3 percentage points; side: Tampa Bay Rays. Sent 9:52 PM ET on Oct 19, 2026. Outcome: won.
Tampa Bay Rays currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~88% chance to win from this exact situation (Tampa Bay Rays +3, Top 6, 0 outs). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 85% (85¢ on YES for Tampa Bay Rays). That's a 3-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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