How Deviate works

Deviate compares two views of a live sporting event: a win probability based on historical game situations and the price a prediction market assigns to the outcome right now. When the gap passes the threshold you set, the app sends you an alert.

Start with the game state

A game state describes what is happening at a particular moment. That can include the score, possession, the inning, or the time remaining, depending on the sport. The point is to compare similar situations. A lead near the end of a game means something different from the same lead near the start.

Deviate maps supported states to a win probability using historical outcomes in comparable situations. This is a state-conditional probability: the number depends on the situation being observed. It describes how often an outcome occurred in the relevant history, rather than treating every lead or every team as the same case.

Check the probability against history

The baseball model uses decades of play-by-play data. That history lets a live situation be compared with past situations, rather than relying on a reaction to the latest play. Each historical model is checked against empirical frequencies before it ships. Those checks compare the model’s probabilities with what actually happened in the data.

Historical outcomes are a basis for comparison, not a promise about the next game. A probability describes uncertainty. Even when a situation has usually ended one way, the other outcome can still happen. The model number should be read with that limitation in mind.

Compare with the live market

Market prices update continuously, and so does the model as the game changes. Deviate compares the resulting win probability with the live price for the corresponding outcome. The difference between those two numbers is the gap, also called the edge, expressed in percentage points.

You choose the minimum gap that should trigger a notification. An alert includes the model number, the market number, the size of the gap, and a plain-English explanation of why it fired. You can read the comparison itself instead of being asked to accept a number without context.

Why the model and the market disagree

A market price reflects information that a raw historical lookup may not capture. For example, when a favourite drops a set in tennis, the market can still price that player as a favourite. Looking only at how often an unspecified player has recovered from that score would leave out part of what the market is considering.

Deviate conditions its historical comparisons on game state for that reason: the situation matters. That does not mean the model captures every fact that participants have priced in. A disagreement can reflect a difference in information or assumptions, and the model can be wrong. An alert gives you the comparison and its explanation so you can consider that difference.

Control what reaches you

In Settings, pick the sports you follow, set your minimum edge, and cap how many alerts you want in a day. You can close the app while it watches the markets. The Edges tab shows open alerts, Live shows tracked markets, and History keeps resolved alerts with their outcomes.

What Deviate is not

Deviate is an information and alerting tool, not a betting service. It does not place trades or hold your money. A model signal is not a guarantee, and no alert removes the risk of loss. You decide what to do with the information and whether to use a separate exchange.

Sports covered

Baseball, tennis, motorsports, basketball, football, golf, hockey, cricket, and soccer.

Market coverage and model-alert coverage differ. Read the sport-by-sport coverage before choosing which sports to follow.