DEVIATEGrizzlies @ Blazers: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Grizzlies @ Blazers alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Grizzlies @ Blazers — Memphis Grizzlies +6, 3:34 left Q3. Model 67%, market 55%, gap 12 percentage points; side: Memphis Grizzlies. Sent 11:43 PM ET on Oct 29, 2026. Outcome: won.
Memphis Grizzlies currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~67% chance to win from this exact situation (Memphis Grizzlies +6, 3:34 left Q3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 55% (55¢ on YES for Memphis Grizzlies). That's a 12-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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