DEVIATELeafs @ Kraken: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Leafs @ Kraken alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Leafs @ Kraken — Seattle Kraken +2, 12:25 left P3. Model 89%, market 84%, gap 5 percentage points; side: Seattle Kraken. Sent 12:14 AM ET on Oct 29, 2026. Outcome: won.
Seattle Kraken currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~89% chance to win from this exact situation (Seattle Kraken +2, 12:25 left P3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 84% (84¢ on YES for Seattle Kraken). That's a 5-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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