DEVIATEMinaur @ Machac: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Minaur @ Machac alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Minaur @ Machac — Tomas Machac level 0-0 in sets, 4-1 in set 1. Model 75%, market 66%, gap 9 percentage points; side: Tomas Machac. Sent 10:56 AM ET on Oct 26, 2026. Outcome: won.
Tomas Machac currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~75% chance to win from this exact situation (Tomas Machac level 0-0 in sets, 4-1 in set 1). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 66% (66¢ on YES for Tomas Machac). That's a 9-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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