DEVIATEAlcaraz @ Medvedev: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Alcaraz @ Medvedev alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Alcaraz @ Medvedev — Carlos Alcaraz up 1-0 in sets, 2-1 in set 2. Model 88%, market 83%, gap 5 percentage points; side: Carlos Alcaraz. Sent 11:09 AM ET on Oct 31, 2026. Outcome: won.
Carlos Alcaraz currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~88% chance to win from this exact situation (Carlos Alcaraz up 1-0 in sets, 2-1 in set 2). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 83% (83¢ on YES for Carlos Alcaraz). That's a 5-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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