DEVIATEPacers @ Pelicans: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Pacers @ Pelicans alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Pacers @ Pelicans — Indiana Pacers +3, 2:31 left Q4. Model 71%, market 58%, gap 13 percentage points; side: Indiana Pacers. Sent 10:28 PM ET on Oct 21, 2026. Outcome: won.
Indiana Pacers currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~71% chance to win from this exact situation (Indiana Pacers +3, 2:31 left Q4). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 58% (58¢ on YES for Indiana Pacers). That's a 13-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
How Deviate works · Read the track record in context · More from the blog