DEVIATEAvalanche @ Flyers: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Avalanche @ Flyers alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Avalanche @ Flyers — Philadelphia Flyers +1, 13:57 left P3. Model 81%, market 68%, gap 13 percentage points; side: Philadelphia Flyers. Sent 9:15 PM ET on Oct 19, 2026. Outcome: won.
Philadelphia Flyers currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~81% chance to win from this exact situation (Philadelphia Flyers +1, 13:57 left P3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 68% (68¢ on YES for Philadelphia Flyers). That's a 13-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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