Deviate FAQ: what it does, what it costs and what it does not do

Quick answers about Deviate, the iPhone app that compares a historical win probability with live prediction market prices. Each answer comes from the app and the How it works page.

What does Deviate do?

It watches live Kalshi sports prediction markets and sends an alert when the model's win probability and the market price differ by more than the minimum you set. The alert shows both numbers, the gap, and a plain-English reason. See What is Deviate? for the longer version.

Does Deviate place trades or hold my money?

No. It is an information and alerting tool. It does not place trades and it does not hold funds. If you choose to trade, that happens on a separate third-party platform.

Is Deviate affiliated with an exchange?

No. Deviate is independent and not endorsed by any exchange. The current app links to Kalshi markets, and trading, if you choose to, happens on the exchange under its own terms.

Does an alert mean I will win?

No. A model number describes how often an outcome happened in comparable past situations. The other outcome can still happen, and the model can be wrong. Reading an alert card walks through one that lost.

Why would the model and the market disagree?

A market price can reflect information a raw historical lookup does not capture. Deviate conditions its comparison on the game state for that reason, but it cannot capture everything the market knows. A disagreement can mean the price is light, or it can mean the market knows something the model does not. What an edge actually means goes into this.

Which sports does it cover?

Nine sports are followed. Baseball, tennis, basketball, football, soccer and hockey have a model that can produce alerts. Motorsports, golf and cricket appear as markets in Live without model alerts. The full breakdown is in Sports Deviate covers.

Can I control how many alerts I get?

Yes. In Settings you pick your sports, set a minimum edge, choose quiet hours and cap alerts per day. Quiet hours suppress sending, they do not queue a digest for later. You can close the app while it watches.

Can I see past alerts?

Yes, in the app. The History tab keeps resolved alerts with their outcomes, wins and losses both, and alerts are timestamped when they are sent. You can browse a free preview before subscribing. The full history log requires a subscription.

What does it cost, and which devices does it run on?

Deviate is for iPhone. It is free to download with in-app purchases: two weeks free for first-time subscribers, then $9.99 per month. The subscription renews automatically and you can cancel any time in your Apple ID settings. Local pricing and trial availability are shown in the App Store. The App Store lists it as 18+. The App Store page has the current details.

How do I contact the team?

Support details are on the support page.

Deviate is an information tool. Trading event contracts involves the risk of loss, and past results do not indicate future results.