DEVIATEPanthers @ Packers: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Panthers @ Packers alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Panthers @ Packers — Green Bay Packers +14, 6:01 left Q4 · def. Model 98%, market 94%, gap 4 percentage points; side: Green Bay Packers. Sent 10:58 PM ET on Oct 29, 2026. Outcome: won.
Green Bay Packers currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~98% chance to win from this exact situation (Green Bay Packers +14, 6:01 left Q4 · def). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 94% (94¢ on YES for Green Bay Packers). That's a 4-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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