DEVIATEPatriots @ Bears: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Patriots @ Bears alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Patriots @ Bears — Chicago Bears +7, 4:11 left Q3 · def. Model 83%, market 77%, gap 6 percentage points; side: Chicago Bears. Sent 10:20 PM ET on Oct 22, 2026. Outcome: won.
Chicago Bears currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~83% chance to win from this exact situation (Chicago Bears +7, 4:11 left Q3 · def). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 77% (77¢ on YES for Chicago Bears). That's a 6-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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