DEVIATEKnicks @ Bulls: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Knicks @ Bulls alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Knicks @ Bulls — Chicago Bulls +13, 5:35 left Q3. Model 89%, market 78%, gap 11 percentage points; side: Chicago Bulls. Sent 9:43 PM ET on Oct 28, 2026. Outcome: lost.
Chicago Bulls currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~89% chance to win from this exact situation (Chicago Bulls +13, 5:35 left Q3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 78% (78¢ on YES for Chicago Bulls). That's a 11-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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