DEVIATEMagic @ Knicks: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Magic @ Knicks alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Magic @ Knicks — Orlando Magic +3, 4:47 left Q4. Model 66%, market 53%, gap 13 percentage points; side: Orlando Magic. Sent 9:13 PM ET on Oct 25, 2026. Outcome: won.
Orlando Magic currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~66% chance to win from this exact situation (Orlando Magic +3, 4:47 left Q4). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 53% (53¢ on YES for Orlando Magic). That's a 13-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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