DEVIATEChiefs @ Seahawks: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Chiefs @ Seahawks alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Chiefs @ Seahawks — Seattle Seahawks +10, 14:16 left Q3 · ball. Model 89%, market 85%, gap 4 percentage points; side: Seattle Seahawks. Sent 10:00 PM ET on Oct 25, 2026. Outcome: won.
Seattle Seahawks currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~89% chance to win from this exact situation (Seattle Seahawks +10, 14:16 left Q3 · ball). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 85% (85¢ on YES for Seattle Seahawks). That's a 4-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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