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Alert breakdown

Yastremska @ Han: the model and market comparison

A closer look at the Yastremska @ Han alert, with its original numbers.

The Deviate team1 min read

Deviate tennis alert card: Yastremska @ Han; +10 percentage-point edge; model 85%, market 75%; outcome won.

The alert

Yastremska @ Han — Shi Han up 1-0 in sets, 0-0 in set 2. Model 85%, market 75%, gap 10 percentage points; side: Shi Han. Sent 8:23 AM ET on Oct 28, 2026. Outcome: won.

Shi Han currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~85% chance to win from this exact situation (Shi Han up 1-0 in sets, 0-0 in set 2). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 75% (75¢ on YES for Shi Han). That's a 10-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.

How to read this comparison

A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.

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