DEVIATEThunder @ Mavericks: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Thunder @ Mavericks alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Thunder @ Mavericks — Dallas Mavericks +11, 8:18 left Q3. Model 85%, market 73%, gap 12 percentage points; side: Dallas Mavericks. Sent 11:10 PM ET on Oct 28, 2026. Outcome: won.
Dallas Mavericks currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~85% chance to win from this exact situation (Dallas Mavericks +11, 8:18 left Q3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 73% (73¢ on YES for Dallas Mavericks). That's a 12-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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