DEVIATE76ers @ Knicks: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the 76ers @ Knicks alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
76ers @ Knicks — Philadelphia 76ers +7, 0:00 left Q3. Model 74%, market 66%, gap 8 percentage points; side: Philadelphia 76ers. Sent 9:17 PM ET on Oct 20, 2026. Outcome: won.
Philadelphia 76ers currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~74% chance to win from this exact situation (Philadelphia 76ers +7, 0:00 left Q3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 66% (66¢ on YES for Philadelphia 76ers). That's a 8-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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