DEVIATEFrequently asked questions
What the app does, what an alert means, and how the subscription works.
What is Deviate?
Deviate is an iPhone app that scans sports prediction markets 24/7. It compares a game-state win-probability model with the live market price and alerts you when the gap passes your chosen threshold.
How is it different from just using Kalshi or Polymarket?
An exchange shows market prices and is where any trading happens. Deviate adds a separate model comparison and threshold-based notifications; the current app links to Kalshi markets. Deviate does not execute trades or hold your funds.
Does Deviate place trades?
No. Deviate displays information and sends alerts. You decide whether to act, and any trade happens on a separate exchange under its own terms.
Which sports does it cover?
You can follow baseball, tennis, motorsports, basketball, football, golf, hockey, cricket, and soccer. Coverage differs by sport: golf, motorsports, and cricket currently show markets in Live without a live model for alerts. The Sports page explains which inputs are used for each sport.
How much does it cost?
Two weeks free, then $9.99/month for Deviate Pro. The free trial is for first-time subscribers, and the subscription renews automatically through your Apple ID.
Can I cancel?
Yes. Cancel anytime in your Apple ID subscription settings. Deleting your Deviate account does not cancel your Apple subscription.
What does an alert contain?
An alert contains the model probability, the live market number, the size of the gap, and a plain-English explanation. It identifies the matchup and game state so you can understand the comparison.
Is the track record public?
Alerts are timestamped when sent, and resolved wins and losses are kept in the app’s History tab. You can browse a free preview before subscribing; the full history log requires a subscription. This website shows one labelled example, not an aggregate performance claim.
Is Deviate affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket?
No. Deviate is independent and not endorsed by any exchange. Any trading takes place on the exchange’s own platform.
How does the model work?
Deviate compares live game situations with historical outcomes in comparable states. Its measured models are checked against empirical frequencies; some leagues use an estimate formula, as explained on the Sports page. The resulting probability is compared with the live market price.
Is there an app that alerts me when Kalshi sports odds are mispriced?
Deviate alerts you when its win-probability model and a live Kalshi sports market disagree by your threshold. The alert shows both numbers and the reason for the comparison. A disagreement is a model signal, not proof that a market is wrong or a guarantee of a winning trade.