DEVIATESteelers @ Saints: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Steelers @ Saints alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Steelers @ Saints — Pittsburgh Steelers +3, 12:24 left Q3 · def. Model 64%, market 57%, gap 7 percentage points; side: Pittsburgh Steelers. Sent 11:27 AM ET on Oct 25, 2026. Outcome: won.
Pittsburgh Steelers currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~64% chance to win from this exact situation (Pittsburgh Steelers +3, 12:24 left Q3 · def). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 57% (57¢ on YES for Pittsburgh Steelers). That's a 7-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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