DEVIATEWild @ Oilers: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Wild @ Oilers alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Wild @ Oilers — Edmonton Oilers +2, 19:09 left P3. Model 89%, market 84%, gap 5 percentage points; side: Edmonton Oilers. Sent 11:12 PM ET on Oct 20, 2026. Outcome: won.
Edmonton Oilers currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~89% chance to win from this exact situation (Edmonton Oilers +2, 19:09 left P3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 84% (84¢ on YES for Edmonton Oilers). That's a 5-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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