DEVIATEHow to read a Deviate alert card, using one that lost
Every part of an alert card explained, from the point edge to the outcome, with a real losing alert as the example.
A Deviate alert card is a one-screen summary of a single alert. It shows what the model saw, what the market was pricing, the gap between them, and how the alert ended. Here is how to read one, using an alert that lost.
Top to bottom
Sport and matchup. The tag in the corner names the sport, and the large title is the matchup. This one is tennis, Kartal @ Chwalinska.
The situation. The line under the title is the game state the model read: Sonay Kartal up 1-0 in sets, 0-0 in set 2. Everything else on the card depends on this state. The same lead at a different point in a match would give a different number.
Point edge. The big number, +7 here, is the gap between the model and the market in percentage points.
Model and market. The model said about 85%. The market was pricing the same outcome at 78%. The model number is how often that outcome happened in comparable historical situations. The market number is the live price for it.
Model sides with. The player or team the model was comparing, here Sonay Kartal.
Outcome. WON or LOST once the game resolves, or no result while it is still open. This alert is marked LOST.
Timestamp. The card is dated to when the alert fired, in Eastern Time. Alerts are stamped when they are sent, not scored after the fact.
Footer. The card says "Model comparison. Not a guarantee." That is the right way to read all of it.
Why show a loss
An alert is a claim that the price looked light compared with history. That claim can be wrong in any single game, and a card that only ever showed wins would tell you very little. The History tab in the app keeps resolved alerts with their outcomes, wins and losses both, so you can judge the pattern yourself. A free preview is available before you subscribe, and the full log requires a subscription.
For a win and a loss from the same morning, read One alert, start to finish. For a second worked example with a larger gap, see the Korneeva @ Han breakdown. For the idea behind the edge number, start with what an edge actually means.
Deviate is an information tool, not financial advice. Trading event contracts involves the risk of loss.