DEVIATEUnion @ Cincinnati: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Union @ Cincinnati alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Union @ Cincinnati — FC Cincinnati up 1, 70'. Model 81%, market 69%, gap 12 percentage points; side: FC Cincinnati. Sent 3:38 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026. Outcome: won.
FC Cincinnati currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~81% chance to win from this exact situation (FC Cincinnati up 1, 70'). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 69% (69¢ on YES for FC Cincinnati). That's a 12-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
How Deviate works · Read the track record in context · More from the blog