DEVIATEFils @ Fritz: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Fils @ Fritz alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Fils @ Fritz — Arthur Fils level 0-0 in sets, 2-0 in set 1. Model 69%, market 66%, gap 3 percentage points; side: Arthur Fils. Sent 11:46 AM ET on Oct 30, 2026. Outcome: lost.
Arthur Fils currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~69% chance to win from this exact situation (Arthur Fils level 0-0 in sets, 2-0 in set 1). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 66% (66¢ on YES for Arthur Fils). That's a 3-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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