DEVIATEMavericks @ Heat: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Mavericks @ Heat alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Mavericks @ Heat — Dallas Mavericks +6, 1:55 left Q4. Model 94%, market 81%, gap 13 percentage points; side: Dallas Mavericks. Sent 9:57 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026. Outcome: won.
Dallas Mavericks currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~94% chance to win from this exact situation (Dallas Mavericks +6, 1:55 left Q4). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 81% (81¢ on YES for Dallas Mavericks). That's a 13-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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