DEVIATEThunder @ Spurs: the model and market comparison
A closer look at the Thunder @ Spurs alert, with its original numbers.
The alert
Thunder @ Spurs — Oklahoma City Thunder +19, 10:54 left Q3. Model 91%, market 87%, gap 4 percentage points; side: Oklahoma City Thunder. Sent 11:13 PM ET on Oct 20, 2026. Outcome: won.
Oklahoma City Thunder currently lead and our historical model gives them a ~91% chance to win from this exact situation (Oklahoma City Thunder +19, 10:54 left Q3). Kalshi's market is pricing the same outcome at 87% (87¢ on YES for Oklahoma City Thunder). That's a 4-point gap between the historical rate and the market price, so the contract looks underpriced relative to history. This reflects historical frequencies, not a guarantee. Late-game variance, injuries, and fouling situations can and do flip outcomes.
How to read this comparison
A model estimate is not a guarantee. Deviate does not place trades. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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